BANGUI, Central African Republic (AP) — Central African Republic on Dec. 28 will hold presidential and legislative elections as concerns over armed groups have led to a growing reliance on Russia for security.
PresidentFaustin Archange Touaderahas led the country since 2016 and is seen as likely to win a third term after a constitutional referendum in 2023 removed term limits. His decision to run again sparked astreet protest by thousands of peopleearlier this year.
Touadera is one of Russia's closest allies in Africa, but tensions have grown this year overMoscow's demandto replace the private Wagner mercenary group with the Russian military unitAfrica Corps.
Meanwhile, rights groups have raised concerns about repression ahead of the vote's first round, while a major opposition group vows to boycott it.
Here is what to know about Central African Republic.
Conflict with armed groups
The landlocked country of around 5.5 million people has been plagued by fighting between pro-government forces and armed groups.
In 2013, predominantly Muslim rebels seized power and forced the president from office. A 2019 peace deal was signed, but six of the 14 armed groups involved later withdrew.
Central African Republic's government has signed peace agreements with armed groups in recent months that have created conditions for stability not seen in years, according to Human Rights Watch.
"Because of the peace deals, United Nations peacekeeping efforts and security support from Wagner and from the Rwandans, the country is in a more secure place than it was during the last electoral cycle in 2020," said Lewis Mudge, the rights group's Central Africa director.
The peacekeeping mission, MINUSCA, has been present since 2014. It currently has around 14,000 military personnel and 3,000 police members, and they will help guard election sites.
Last month, the U.N. Security Council extended the force's mission for a year but said its presence would scale down due to budget constraints. MINUSCA spokesperson Florence Marchal told The Associated Press it was unclear how many peacekeepers will leave before the election but asserted that the reduction will not compromise its security.
Tensions with Russia
Central African Republic is one of the first countries where Wagner established operations, with a pledge to fight rebel groups and restore peace. But disagreements around the nature of Russia's military presence have cast a shadow over relations with Moscow.
In August, local government and military officials told the AP that Russia has called on the country to replace Wagner with Africa Corps and wants payment for further security services.
The governmenthas been reluctant to agree to Russia's demandsbecause it sees Wagner as more effective and prefers to pay for services with minerals, not in cash, local officials told the AP earlier this year. They spoke on condition of anonymity as they were not allowed to publicly discuss the matter.
Wagner has been protecting Touadera and his government and helped him win the constitutional referendum that removed presidential term limits. In exchange, the mercenary group has enjoyed access to the country'srich minerals, including gold.
Rwanda also influential
Regional powerhouse Rwanda also has an important military presence. Aside from taking part in the U.N. peacekeeping mission, 1,000 special forces were deployed following a rebel attack on the capital, Bangui, in 2021.
Their presence in is part of Rwanda's "military diplomacy," said Charles Bouëssel, a Central Africa analyst with the International Crisis Group.
In 2021, the countries signed agreements in which Rwanda, a densely populated country, got access to farmland and mining concessions in exchange for military support against armed groups.
"For Rwanda, the Central African Republic is seen as a potential backup to their mining interests in (neighboring) eastern Congo," which have created tensions with Congo's government, Bouëssel said.
Congo, the U.S. and U.N. expertsaccuse Rwanda of backing the M23 rebel group, which recently launched adeadly new offensive in eastern Congo. Rwanda has denied it.
Concerns about electoral irregularities
Last month, Human Rights Watch warned that the election's credibility is at risk, pointing to incomplete voter lists and insufficiently trained polling staff, particularly outside Bangui.
The rights group also documented what it described as a pattern of administrative tactics that have disproportionately hindered opposition candidates.
Two of the country's most prominent political figures, former prime ministers Anicet Georges Dologuélé and Henri-Marie Dondra, were barred from entering the race until Nov. 14, when the Constitutional Council decided to allow them to run as candidates for president.
The main opposition coalition, the Republican Bloc for the Defense of the Constitution, announced in October it will boycott the election, denouncing what it called an unequal political environment. Neither Dologuélé nor Dondra are part of it.
Analysts say the boycott, and the limited window for campaigning by Dologuélé and Dondra, likely will pave the way for a Touadera victory and a parliament dominated by the governing party.
Banchereau reported from Dakar, Senegal.
